Posts Tagged ‘recession’

China’s Love and Hate Relationship with History

Jenny Zhu Posted in China, economy,Tags: , , , , , , ,
7

Recent stats have shown a brisk recovery of China’s economy. GDP growth achieved 7.9% in the second quarter of 2009.  And  according to figures quoted in this week’s the Economist, fixed investment surged by 35%, car sales rose by 48%, purchases of homes by 80%, and the stock market’s value rose by more than 80% since its low last November. The huge stimulus seems to be very effective.

This is good news for both the world and China. In fact in China, the significance is massive. The population is so accustomed to robust growth (many of whom have seen nothing but growth in their life) that besides trusting the government’s stimulus would work, many are blindly convinced that China would continue the road of growth for eternity. Voicing doubt in the stimulus and economic growth is like saying Sarah Palin is cool in a liberal gathering. I found an extreme example of the sentiment when reading a high profile economist’s blog where he is called a ‘traitor’ in the comments.  Andy Xie is a Chinese economist who used to hold prominent positions in Morgan Stanley. Now he is an independent economist who observes China’s economy with a sobering and critical eye. He can often be seen talking about how overheated the stock and property markets are.

In his most recent blog post titled ‘Here we go again’(written in English), Andy Xie pointed out that Chinese banks are force-feeding the economy with liquidity (especially into the property and stock markets). And he warns that throughout history a lending boom is inevitably followed by a crisis and China can’t escape it. His voice stands out from a sea of economists who go with the official line. This is has attracted angry internet users to label him as a ‘traitor’. To them, Andy Xie is a like a party pooper, but in the most heinous form. I find this to be shocking and bewildering. How is an economic judgment related to betraying one’s country?  Apparently, some people not only take things personally, they take it nationalistically. Besides displaying the ideological leanings of the extreme ‘natizens’ (nationalistic netizens),  it also reflects a paradoxical attitude towards history. For a country which takes so much pride in its long history, people also have a selective attitude that only picks the glorious part and disregards the rest. Rather than learning from history, we ignore it. And eventually, history will kick our bottocks.

The Charmed Expat Life Over?

Jenny Zhu Posted in China, business,Tags: , , , , ,
10


A friend of mine who works for a large consulting firm is busy moving, downgrading to be exact. Her housing allowance was cut from RMB30,000 to RMB10,000. If moving is tedious, imagine how horrific it is to move to a worse place. I have heard a lot about how expats have been hit hard by the current recession, that many are gone and the rest have to take significant cuts in salary and benefits. It seems the days of champagne brunch and art gallery visits are over. Will the charmed existence of the expat be a tale like those of Shanghai in the 1930′s? There is no official figure of the expat causalities yet. But I suspect talking to operators of some favorite expat hangouts in town will give a good indication.

On the other hand, there has been rising interest in Chinese with overseas education and work experience. The Shanghai government and a number of state owned enterprises have gone on headhunting trips to New York and London. They especially liked Chinese with overseas experiences who theoretically would have the best of both worlds and bridge the gaps in language, skill and exposure. In addition, many of them command a more competitive salary or are willing to take less. For corporates, it seems to make sense to look for talent in this group, especially for mid-level management positions. But at the same time, many companies are putting freeze on new hires or being extremely cautious about it. So it doesn’t look too promising for anyone.

Who will support the wine bars sprouting all over the city now?